Biden called him a “killer.” Putin’s three possible answers.

Biden called him a “killer.” Putin’s three possible answers.

Коментар на Константин Егерт [His opinion, not mine. Still, interesting.]

Biden uttered the harshest words spoken by a Western leader to Putin. He called him a “soulless man” and a “murderer.” It’s kind of a personal warning: “Don’t take drastic steps!”. How will Moscow respond?

Commentary by Konstantin Egert

A change in US tactics?

In fact, in his interview, Biden took an important step forward in the development of relations with Moscow, and more precisely – personally with Putin, which is currently the same. His actions so far toward Russia have seemed rather cautious.

For example: The White House waived sanctions against German suppliers of Nord Stream-2. In addition, Biden has not yet spoken by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Washington certainly knows how the Kremlin interprets these signals.

And suddenly – this biting interview with attacks on Putin’s personality. Of course, from the Kremlin’s point of view, it is very important how strong Biden’s promised “answer” will be. For Putin, who ranks all politicians on the strength-weakness vector, now is clearly the time to choose. He may pretend to take Biden’s remarks as a kind of compliment – the reputation of a real villain is always better than the image of a weakling. At the same time, Putin is well aware that in his relations with the United States, “his” Russia is in danger of reaching the limit of its financial, economic, military and political capabilities.

On the other hand, the Kremlin boss (whose opinion is decisive in this case) has always considered Biden to be a continuation of Barack Obama’s policies. For Putin, a symbol of this policy is the infamous “red line” from 2013, when Obama said he would not tolerate the use of chemical weapons by Moscow protégé Bashar al-Assad. However, when the Assad regime later used chemical weapons against civilians, Washington did not respond. And Putin has come to the conclusion that Obama and his team are “weak.” This conclusion actually led to both the conflict with Ukraine and the subsequent Russian intervention in Syria.

So the Kremlin is unlikely to decide to respond to Biden. In such a development, the few remaining Russian oppositionists will be the first to be hit. The Putin regime always punishes the West by striking at its opponents, because it knows that this will not lead to any special sanctions. Another possible and even very likely step would be to block some, if not all, Western social networks in Russia. Social networks are in the hands of American companies, and the Kremlin has long considered them a tool for interfering in its internal affairs. There is already a precedent: LinkedIn was blocked in 2016. This, incidentally, happened at the very end of Barack Obama’s term. Today, the main (but probably not the only) candidate is apparently the social network Twitter. And in parallel with the war for social networks, a cyber war is being waged between Russia and the United States, which will probably now flare up in full force.

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Official recognition of separatists in Ukraine?

The third possible response from Putin after Biden’s interview is the resumption of the conflict with Ukraine – in one form or another. Putin is naturally angry after the Ukrainian government bans three Russian TV channels, imposes sanctions on prominent Ukrainian Kremlin supporter Viktor Medvedchuk, and sets up the Crimean Platform, a political-diplomatic tool aimed at securing sustained Western pressure on Russia to return. on the peninsula under Ukrainian sovereignty. Against this background, it is not difficult to imagine, including the fact that Moscow can officially recognize the separatist entities “LPR” and “DPR” in eastern Ukraine.

Moscow believes that the current political differences between the EU and the US are very serious and therefore expect that a possible common transatlantic response to such actions would be very weak. Or at least not so strong that the Kremlin could not swallow it without serious losses.

Joe Biden’s interview sounds like a warning to Putin personally: “Don’t take drastic steps!” We’ll find out soon.

Source:

https://www.dw.com/bg/%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%B4%D1%8A%D0%BD-%D0%B3%D0%BE-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%87%D0%B5-%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B5%D1%86-%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5-%D0%B2%D1%8A%D0%B7%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8-%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD/a-56915296