The stabilization of climate with SRM for a period of longer than two decades could lead to a scenario wherein SRM must be maintained for millennia else risking a large and uncertain level of rapid global warming

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SRM BBC atmosphere engineering 1

The stabilization of climate with SRM for a period of longer than two decades could lead to a scenario wherein SRM must be maintained for millennia else risking a large and uncertain level of rapid global warming

SRM = Solar Radiation Management = Geoengineering = Chemtrails

[This is not a trusted process and must be stopped immediately. Do the authors of this paper realize they are arguing for the continuation of covert operations?]

http://web.mit.edu/karmour/www/McCusker_etal_ERL2014.pdf

Excerpt

3. Sensitivity to termination year, emissions, and
climate sensitivity
Current best estimates of climate sensitivity constrain its value
to likely be between 2 and 4.5 C and very likely exceed
1.5 C (Meehl et al 2007). We thus consider here a climate
sensitivity range of 1.5–10 C (see supplementary materials
for more details available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/024005/m
media), and further explore a variety of plausible background
GHG emissions scenarios and SRM termination years. We
employ a simplified, one-dimensional, climate model that has
an upwelling-diffusion ocean and energy balance atmosphere
with adjustable climate sensitivity (UD-EBM; from Baker and
Roe (2009), similar in form to that in Hoffert et al (1980)).
When tuned to capture the annual and global mean response
of CCSM4—including its equilibrium climate sensitivity of
3.2 C and transient climate response of 1.7 C (Bitz et al
2012)—the UD-EBM successfully reproduces CCSM4’s SAT
trends following SRM cessation (black symbols in figure 5).
The background radiative forcing (RF) within the UD-
EBM is prescribed to follow RCP8.5 (Riahi et al 2007)
and RCP2.6 (van Vuuren et al 2007) emissions scenarios,
representing ‘business-as-usual’ emissions and strong GHG
mitigation, respectively. SRM is simulated by maintaining RF
at year 2000 levels until the time of abrupt SRM termination,
at which point the RF is set to that of the background GHG
emissions scenario until year 2100. Each of these simulations
is performed for the range of climate sensitivities described
above and for a variety of shutoff years.
We first consider the case in which climate sensitivity
is set to that of CCSM4 and SRM is employed to mask the
business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP8.5, as was used in
the CCSM4 experiments in figures and 2). When SRM is
terminated following a 20-year implementation period (year
2020 in figure 4; blue curve), RF abruptly increases by about
1Wm2, producing a small spike in the rate of temperature
change that quickly decays to the rate of the background
RCP8.5 scenario. The 20-year temperature trends following
SRM cessation are 0.2–0.6 C/decade for the range of climate
erl480492f4_online
Figure 4. (a) Evolution of the net radiative forcing (RF) due to GHGs and SRM, (b) temperature response (4T), and (c) rate of temperature
change (d4T/dt) with climate sensitivity set to 3.2 C, that of CCSM4. The business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and
low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) are shown in thick, lightly shaded curves (light pink and gray, respectively). SRM termination following
20 years and 80 years of implementation are shown in thinner, dark curves (blue and green for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 background emissions,
respectively). Figure S9 (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/024005/mmedia) displays these results for the ‘very likely’ range of climate
sensitivities defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4).
sensitivities (figure 5), comparable to those trends that occur
under the RCP8.5 scenario without any SRM.
In contrast, when SRM is implemented for a period of
80 years before cessation, there is an abrupt RF increase
of over 5 W m2 (year 2080 in figure 4(a); blue curve) due
to the loss of the large SRM RF that was required to mask
the ongoing accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere. This
spike in RF produces a rapid and substantial increase in global
averaged temperature: almost 9 C/decade in the first few
years for CCSM4’s climate sensitivity (figure 4(c)), and up to
10 C/decade for high climate sensitivities (figure S9 available
at stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/024005/mmedia). Sensitivity of ini-
tial rates of change are consistent with previous evaluations of
SRM termination with multiple climate sensitivities and/or ter-
mination year (Matthewset al2007, Ross and Matthews 2009).
Twenty-year trends over the range of climate sensitivities are
0.6–2 C/decade (figure 5). Thus, under business-as-usual
future GHG emissions, the stabilization of climate with SRM
for a period of longer than about two decades would create
the potential for sustained high rates of warming upon SRM
cessation, even if climate sensitivity were near the lower end
of its estimated range (figure 5).
We next consider the case where SRM is employed
along with concurrent aggressive GHG mitigation measures,
as represented by the low-emissions RCP2.6 scenario wherein
anthropogenic RF is about 2.6Wm2 above preindustrial in
2100 (Moss et al 2010). Due to the limited accumulation of
GHGs in the atmosphere, the SRM RF required to stabilize
climate is relatively small (compared to the RCP8.5 case),
and thus SRM termination results in an abrupt RF increase of
less than about 2 W m2 regardless of its timing (figure 4(a);
green curves). Following SRM cessation, there are high rates
of temperature change in the first few years (figure 4(c); green
curves), but 20-year temperature trends remain below about
0.4 C/decade—comparable to those trends that occur under
the RCP2.6 scenario without any SRM—over the full range of
climate sensitivity and timing of SRM termination (figure 5).
Within each of the above scenarios, the initial rate of
temperature change following SRM cessation depends on
climate sensitivity only nominally (see supplementary note
and figure S10 available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/024005/mm
edia). Climate sensitivity does become an important factor in
setting longer-term temperature trends, particularly under a
large RF increase (compare 20-year trends in figure with 5-
year trends in figure S10 available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/024
005/mmedia). However, figure (and figure S10 available at st
acks.iop.org/ERL/9/024005/mmedia) shows that the principal
control on the rate of temperature change following SRM
cessation is the size of the abrupt RF increase, which, in turn, is
determined jointly by the background GHG emissions scenario
and the duration of time that SRM has been deployed.
Critically then, even for the lowest plausible values
of climate sensitivity, decadal temperature trends would be
extremely large (double that of the largest 20-year historical
trend in CCSM4; horizontal black line in figure 5) in the event
of a late 21st century SRM termination under high (RCP8.5)
future emissions (figure 5; blue asterisks); conversely, even
for the highest plausible values of climate sensitivity, decadal
temperature trends would remain relatively small in the event
of SRM cessation at any point in the 21st century, under low
(RCP2.6) future emissions (figure 5; green asterisks). Thus, the
only way to avoid creating the risk of substantial temperature
erl480492f5_online
Figure 5. Twenty-year temperature trend following SRM
termination — after 20, 50, and 80 years (boxed numbers) of
implementation — as a function of climate sensitivity for the
RCP8.5 (blue asterisks) and RCP2.6 (green asterisks) background
emissions scenarios and the maximum RCP8.5 (blue squares) and
RCP2.6 (green squares) 20-year trends. Background shading
indicates the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Assessment Report 4 (AR4) likelihood ranges for climate sensitivity
(‘likely’ has a >66% probability, and ‘very likely’ has a >90%
probability; Hegerl et al 2007). The vertical black line is CCSM4’s
climate sensitivity (3.2 C), the horizontal black line is the
maximum global mean, annual mean 20-year trend sampled from
the CCSM4 Historical simulations, the black triangle shows the
CCSM4 20-year global mean, annual mean trend following SRM
cessation (1.16 C/decade), and the black circle shows the 20-year
UD-EBM trend for SRM termination after 65 years of balanced RF
(1.0 C/decade), when the RF jump is roughly equivalent to that
estimated in CCSM4 (about 4–5W m 2).
trends through SRM is concurrent strong reductions of GHG
emissions.
While we have considered here only SRM cessation
scenarios within the 21st century, these findings have long-
term implications as well. If SRM was used to stabilize global
climate under high future GHG emissions, it would need to be
maintained on timescales determined by the turnover time of
GHGs in the atmosphere, which in the case of carbon dioxide
is multiple millennia (Archer 2005). Indeed, the stabilization
of global temperature with SRM would also preclude further
observations of the climate response to the ongoing GHG
emissions (Matthews et al 2007), on which many estimates of
global climate sensitivity are based. Thus, the large-scale use
of SRM to mask business-as-usual GHG emissions could lead
to a scenario wherein SRM must be maintained for millennia,
else risking a large and uncertain level of rapid global warming
upon any unanticipated cessation.
SRM BBC climate_change_space_mirrors 2
Related:
SRM BBC 3

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#SRM #SolarRadiationManagement #Geoengineering #Chemtrails

The stabilization of climate with SRM for a period of longer than two decades could lead to a scenario wherein SRM must be maintained for millennia else risking a large and uncertain level of rapid global warming

https://rosettasister.wordpress.com/2014/02/19/the-stabilization-of-climate-with-srm-for-a-period-of-longer-than-two-decades-could-lead-to-a-scenario-wherein-srm-must-be-maintained-for-millennia-else-risking-a-large-and-uncertain-level-of-rapid-gl/

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9 Responses to “The stabilization of climate with SRM for a period of longer than two decades could lead to a scenario wherein SRM must be maintained for millennia else risking a large and uncertain level of rapid global warming”

  1. rosettasister Says:

    #SRM #SolarRadiationManagement #Geoengineering #Chemtrails

    The stabilization of climate with SRM for a period of longer than two decades could lead to a scenario wherein SRM must be maintained for millennia else risking a large and uncertain level of rapid global warming

    https://rosettasister.wordpress.com/2014/02/19/the-stabilization-of-climate-with-srm-for-a-period-of-longer-than-two-decades-could-lead-to-a-scenario-wherein-srm-must-be-maintained-for-millennia-else-risking-a-large-and-uncertain-level-of-rapid-gl/

    [This is not a trusted process and must be stopped immediately. Do the authors of this paper realize they are arguing for the continuation of covert operations?]

  2. rosettasister Says:

    Blind Faith were an English blues rock band that comprised Eric Clapton, Ginger Baker, Steve Winwood, and Ric Grech.

    In 1973 RSO Records released the only album under his own name, credited to ‘Rick’ Grech. The album was titled The Last Five Years. It contained songs that Grech wrote and recorded with Family, Blind Faith, Traffic, Ginger Baker’s Airforce and others between 1968 and 1973.

  3. rosettasister Says:

    Viva Las Vegas!

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  4. rosettasister Says:

  5. rosettasister Says:

    #chemTrails #geoEngineering #Tempe #Phoenix #Arizona #AZ

    Tempe, Arizona

    2nd Global MARCH Against Chemtrails and Geoengeneering – PHOENIX

    We’ll be going out again this Saturday, the 22nd at 1:00 p.m. to hand out fliers and DVD’s for a couple hours. Meet on Mill Avenue in Tempe at the intersection closest to the park entrance.

    Tempe Beach Park Meeting Place
    Tempe, AZ 85281

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  6. rosettasister Says:

    1

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  7. rosettasister Says:

    #chemTrails #geoEngineering #climateChange #globalWarming

    Archive of skyderalertdotcom Feb 20, 2014 07:52:07 GMT – Skyder Alert

    http://chemtrailsaroundtheworld.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/archive-of-httpwww-skyderalert-com-feb-20-2014-075207-gmt-skyder-alert/

    Have a look here, too. Thanks.

    http://twitter.com/search?q=%23chemTrails

  8. rosettasister Says:

    #SRM #SolarRadiationManagement #Geoengineering #Chemtrails

    The stabilization of climate with SRM for a period of longer than two decades could lead to a scenario wherein SRM must be maintained for millennia else risking a large and uncertain level of rapid global warming

    http://beforeitsnews.com/environment/2014/02/the-stabilization-of-climate-with-srm-for-a-period-of-longer-than-two-decades-could-lead-to-a-scenario-wherein-srm-must-be-maintained-for-millennia-else-risking-a-large-and-uncertain-level-of-rapid-gl-2493504.html

    [This is not a trusted process and must be stopped immediately. Do the authors of this paper realize they are arguing for the continuation of covert operations?]

  9. rosettasister Says:

    #HAARP #JoeMontaldo #InternationalCommunityforAlienResearch
    #ICAR #alfredlambremontwebre

    begins @ approx 16:15

    Joe Montaldo – International Community for Alien Research interviews alfred lambremont webre

    Alfred Lambremont Webre – The Omniverse: A Dimensional Ecology

    12 Feb 2014

    [My guess is these guys are sometimes right, sometimes wrong. But I’m not going to stop listening even if sometimes I find their pronouncements to be so much hogwash. Then I would miss a lot and that would be silly. — Rose]

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    http://www.prweb.com/releases/GMOFree/Maui/prweb11622978.htm

    [audio src="http://www.bbsradio.com/syncf/As_You_Wish_Talk_Radio/As_You_Wish_Talk_Radio_2014-03-15.mp3" /]

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    youtube.com/watch?v=5Zp9WCyGp_0

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